Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. But that isnt likely to be enough in a state that produces such narrow margins of victory. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., is one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents, with the Cook Political Report rating the Wisconsin race as a toss-up and the race for Pennsylvania's open Senate seat as . Plus 5 to minus 28 among moderates (the second sharpest decline). Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. As a result, more governors than senators have PARGs at the extreme ends of the spectrum, as you can see in the table below. Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . For instance, New Hampshire is an evenly divided state, but Gov. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. Frankly, who cares what you think about Biden, the real question about your thinking is: Do you really believe voters are equally sickened by Biden as they truly are with Trump? Help assure the future of citys fastest growing publication. Learn more. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. But what they missed was that she could create a sincere connection with those working-class voters in rural areas and in Democratic-rich Dane [County] and Milwaukee.. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Early polling indicates a tight race. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. Gerald Ford 1974-77. I gave thousands of dollars to Democratic Candidates and I continue to get phone calls to contribute more I picked up volunteers from Chicago to knock on doors in Waukesha County for John Kerry in 2004 I collected signatures to Recall Scott Walker in Brookfield, Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012 I never voted for a Republican since I started voting in 1972.. That being said, I just dropped out of the Democratic Party after 50 years of loyalty I am a devout Christian and a Catholic I refuse to condemn my soul to hell for a bunch of evil, corrupt, lying, war mongering, mass murdering, pieces of human excrement like Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Tammy Baldwin, Ben Wikler, Mark Pocan, Adam Schiff, and AOC. Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. President Joe Biden's approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll . Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. He ran behind the other three, with 44% versus 46% for Barnes, 43% versus 45% for Godlewski and 43% versus 44% for Nelson. R+23. Independent Sens. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April. Well over half (57 percent) of voters in the state . Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . Both politicians were backed by 43 percent of likely voters. John F. Kennedy 1961-63. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Voters do not. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. Check out all the polls weve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. Trump is quite unpopular here. Johnsons rating has risen from plus 50 six years ago to plus 57 with Republicans; from plus 33 to plus 46 with self-identified conservatives; from plus 15 to plus 26 with born-again Protestants; and from plus 2 to plus 9 with white noncollege men. Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll (The Hill), Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks (NBC News), 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks (CNN). Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. By Eli Yokley. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). PPP recently conducted a poll for 314 Action in Wisconsin and found that the state unsurprisingly continues to be closely divided politically about a lot of things but not its feelings about Ron Johnson. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? Perhaps the biggest news in the poll is the rise of Michels, who announced his run for governor in late April, too late to be included in the April MU p0ll which last measured the governors race. Barnes had been a community activist after college, and served in the Wisconsin State Assembly before becoming lieutenant governor. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. That may not look like anything special, but its actually quite impressive because Manchin is a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation (R+30). Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. Bush 1989-93. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker,5 41.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 52.6 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -11.2 points). But as Franklin notes, Johnsons growing salience for these voters could help Democratic turnout. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. Got a confidential news tip? The Supreme Court Not So Much. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. Dan McKees mediocre +2 net approval rating, the fact that he is running for the office for the first time (he became governor only because he was the lieutenant governor when the old governor resigned), the pro-Republican national mood and Rhode Islands elasticity. Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. Indeed, Democrats are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove of Johnsons job performance than Republicans are to solidly back it, at 63 percent to 27 percent. 1990 FLEER. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Mandela Barnes in the general election in Wisconsin, NBC News projected. George H.W. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. The . (That said, he did win by only 20 points, several points worse than the states partisan lean, suggesting that his unpopularity did have some effect. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). In Marquettes polling, most voters including about one-third of Republicans are skeptical toward Johnsons statements about COVID. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of his performance, including 56 . 56% of independent voters in . The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. He does so despite woeful approval ratings among Wisconsin . Senator Ron Johnson's . The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. As they have for years, three northeastern, blue-state Republicans lead the way: Govs. That conversation starts with Sen. Doug Jones, who comes in at No. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. Have questions? On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. And you might expect Democratic Gov. Johnson, 67, is also the subject of an ethics complaint over a $280,000 gift to his chief of staff, which he argued was intended for the employees cancer treatments, NBC News reported. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. But while Johnson is unpopular, few are ready to declare his chances dead on arrival as he revs up his third Senate campaign in a state Trump lost by just a sliver in 2020. When the dates . With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Free shipping for many products! After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson emerged from Donald Trumps presidency with his approval ratings in Wisconsin underwater and its only gotten worse under Joe Biden, even as voters there have soured on the Democratic president. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. Raphael Warnock, Mark Kelly, Maggie Hassan and Catherine Cortez Masto all have PARS scores of at least +7, suggesting that they are capable of outperforming the base partisanship of their state. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Compared with his peak in popularity in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 when his average favorability rating was plus 10 the downturn is notable. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. Governor Mandela Barnes, and even tighter in the Republican primary for governor, with businessman Tim Michelsin a near-tie with former Lt. 2022 Governors Elections (39) Senator Ron Johnson against his top challengers, which show Johnson a bit behind three of the four Democratic challengers, and a similar matchup of incumbent Democratic Gov. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District Democratic Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term. In October, Johnson said that the top 1% of earners already pay "pretty close to a fair share. The polling suggests that in the past two years, Johnson has positioned himself better for the first task than the second. Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. Youre ridiculous. They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Faircloth's loss came in a year in which the President, Democrat Bill Clinton, had an approval rating in the 60s. But as Franklin points out, its really since 2019 that public opinion has grown markedly more negative and polarized over Johnson, and Johnson had already strongly aligned himself with Trump by then. Price: US $0.99. He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. But in fact, he has been quite polarizing. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Results from the most recent update. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. We want to hear from you. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. A FiveThirtyEight report last week suggested Barnes, who has endorsements from progressive Democratic Senators Bernie Sanders (Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. Quarterly polls conducted from 2017-2021 among representative samples of at least 2,517 registered Wisconsin voters, with unweighted margins of error of up to +/-3 percentage points for responses shown. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. Douglas Rooks, a Maine editor, commentator and reporter since 1984, is the author of three books, and is now researching the life and career of a U.S. Chief Justice. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. RCP House Ratings, Map. With the combine drills about to start from Indianapolis, @TheRealForno has a three-round mock draft to get you excited Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. Independent Sens. This ad will close automatically in 15 seconds. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. Timmy! The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. But PARS reveals why the handicappers arent so sure. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. A Division of NBCUniversal. And how effective is what they plan to do to whoever the eventual nominee is?. . Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. * Partisan lean is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Cant fix stupid or true believers. In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Buy It Now. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race. If the same state had a Republican governor with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). We're pretty sure you're a member and you're definitely not signed in. Gas prices have plummeted. Ron Johnson's approval ratings are underwater in a swing state that President Joe Biden won. That could make it harder for Johnson to improve his standing this time around, since public opinion is firmer. Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. Johnson (Republican Party) ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate to represent Wisconsin.He won in the general election on November 8, 2022.. Johnson was first elected to the Senate in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Sen. Russ . The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion.